Makihara (002714): The low point in the first quarter has passed the cycle and the rapid upward performance has great elasticity

Makihara (002714): The low point in the first quarter has passed the cycle and the rapid upward performance has great elasticity

Investment Points Makihara’s 2019Q1 revenue 30.

500 million (+ 11%), net profit attributable to mother increased by 5.

4 ‰ (-498%), performance in line with our budget expectations.

Around the Spring Festival, the industry concentrated on selling to suppress prices, and overlapping costs rose, leading to Q1 errors.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the farmers cleared the pigs and sold them in a concentrated manner, resulting in a new 北京男士会所 low pig price.

The average sales price of the company from January to February was only 9.

6 yuan / kg, the pig price jumped in March, and the sales price rose from around 10 yuan at the beginning of the month to about 15 yuan / kg.

The average selling price of fat pigs in Q1 is estimated at 10.

About 75 yuan / kg.

Affected by the epidemic, the company upgraded and upgraded the pig farm, strengthened the expenditure on epidemic prevention, etc., which resulted in an increase in cost of about 1 yuan / kg. We estimate that the full cost of Q1 is about 12.

6 yuan / kg.

Fat pig heads are expected to be 189 yuan, and fat pigs may be 5.

About 300 million.

Q1 piglets go out 26.

60,000 piglets, the average price of piglets is about 24 yuan / kg, piglets have a slight loss.

The industry’s production capacity has reached a record high, and pig prices have entered a rapid growth channel.

The decline in fertile sows in March hit a record high, and we expect the chain to continue to decline in the future.

Affected by swine fever, farmers withdrew, the situation of empty pens was serious, and the pens were down.

The current lack of pigs in the market is highlighted, and we believe that pig prices have entered a rapid growth channel.

According to the industry’s production and 武汉桑拿 demand pattern, it is expected that the pig price in this cycle will reach a record high, and the high point is expected to reach 25-30 yuan / kg, and it will run at a high level.

Risk warning: outbreak risk; fluctuation in pig price; less than expected.